Shi Jianjun: The Market Still Does Not Have The Logic Of Conquering Ahead.

In the next two years, there is a big probability of a concussion market.

Big market needs economic pformation to see initial success and sustainability of development.

Next year is up and down, convergence, convergence of the possibility of breeding market is relatively large, behind the attention of high-quality basket stocks, high interest rates blue chip stocks.

With the acceleration of future opening up, revenue will come down, and big money will come in to pay more attention to liquidity and performance and safety.

In the future, the pfer of new three board and state-owned shares to reduce supplementary pension is a great probability. Therefore, the market has to bear the opportunity before shocks. The former is necessary to build and perfect the capital market system. The latter is the way to face aging and livelihood, stability and development.

At the same time, we must realize that the market is still too high at present. No matter PE or PB is not low, the median stock price is also high.

Therefore, it may be better to rebound in the next two years.

The Shanghai composite index is only 40 points away from the previous high point of 3140.

In principle, the distance between the 40 points in the area is simply a lift.

Therefore, it is still unreasonable and unpopular to say that the 3140 point is difficult to cross.

Let's suppose that

It can break through the 3140 year high point.

From a technical analysis point of view, the market will enter a new rising band theoretically.

The 2980 point is the starting point of the new rising band.

Why is this judgement? Because, according to the band structure of the technical analysis, if the market effectively breaks through 3140 points, it means that the new rising band starting from 2969 points should be higher than 2781-3140.

Because from the wave structure analysis, the rising band at the 2969 point should be a 2781-3140 rise wave.

Why do we break through the 3140 point effectively? The 2969 point will start with a relative 2781 wave band, because at every point in the 2781-3140 point, every wave and its turnover will be correct.

Moreover, the callback from 3140 to 2969 is obviously lower than that of the 2638-3097 band.

Therefore, the 3140-2969 point callback is not the 4 wave callback since 2638 o'clock.

Therefore, the 2781-3140 point is not the 2638 point rebound.

In other words, since the beginning of the intermediate rebound from 2638 point, the real wave has not yet appeared.

Now, the problem is coming.

As mentioned above, if the 3140 points are effectively broken, it means that the market has entered a new main lift from 2969 o'clock.

The band target will point to at least 3400-3500 points.

So, does the current market environment support the operation requirements of such a surge? In other words, is the current stock market policy environment and funding environment sufficient to form and promote such a rising band that requires more capital and energy?

This is back to my original logic.

In the current market background, I did not find enough reason to support the market to launch a main band.

Even if we don't talk about the macroeconomic and monetary policies, I can't find a reason to launch a new rise.

Why? Because the stock account margin and credit account financing data of the entire stock market that I monitored show that: so far, the stock market is still just running stock funds.

Moreover, this stock fund has been slowly consuming process.

This shows that we need to break through the top 3140 points effectively unless there is a continuous expansion of new incremental funds.

Otherwise, the 3140 point can not be effectively conquered.

So far, I have not seen any entry signals of off site incremental funds.

By the way, I see someone saying that the first week of the stock market, that is, last week, the investor's margin (that is, "bank card pfer") went to 63 billion.

On the "very excited" guess whether it is the property market.

Began to return to the stock market.

I could not help laughing when I saw it.

These people's brains are actually one-way valves.

Only one week after the holiday came to 63 billion, but did not see 104 billion 200 million of the week before the holiday.

This part of the money after the holiday is obviously the capital to avoid the long holiday insurance before the holiday.

During the national day, the policy was restricted. When the national day passed, the capital of the property market came out. The property market capital was almost faster than that of the stock market. Is it not funny? Moreover, the capital of the real estate market and the stock market are basically two kinds of funds of different nature.

At the end of the year, it is the season for all kinds of loan funds to settle accounts at year-end.

At the end of the year, it is also the season of financial inspection for all kinds of funds.

Looking at the history of China's A shares, the fourth quarter has launched a large scale market, which seems to be only two years in 26 years.

Under the background of management vigorously advocating the fact that the funds are going to be empty, can we expect the OTC funds to enter the field to launch the new rising band?

The characteristic of this rally is going ahead in the air.

The beginning is like this, the bad influence continues to advance after the concussion.

If the market can continue to grow by more than 600 billion yuan, 700 billion yuan, 800 billion yuan, and more than 10000 billion yuan, the market will have an aggressive bull market. In general, the amount of energy can be Guan Jian.

Otherwise, in another 3-6 weeks, the market may be a big adjustment of the risk period. The probability of a larger adjustment is increasing. The most recent market attack is 3140 down. The possibility of forming a double head in the form is actually large.

However, the probability of adjustment is large when attacking to 3140 position.