How To Grasp The Opportunity For PTA Fundamentals

In the short term, there is a slight expansion of the PTA processing fee; some PTA factories are heavily hedging, resulting in a large number of warehouse receipts, resulting in explicit inventory. Due to overhaul of the plant and overloading of the warehouse, the factory storehouse is relatively low, resulting in overselling in some large factories.

By the middle of 11 months, factories will be completely restarted, and polyester demand will become weaker in the lower reaches, and the fundamentals will reappear weak.

At the same time, we believe that in the factory to speed up

In the context of preventing the return of the capacity to return, the future paction is still mainly based on the short processing fee of the high price, and it will take many opportunities to complete the production capacity.

This year PTA became the least volatile chemical product, crude oil doubled, and polyolefins soared, but PTA was still on its feet.

We believe that the main logic of such a small volatility lies in the change in the attitude of the PTA factory, making the game between the PTA and the upstream PX industries evolving into the internal game between the PTA factories, the main purpose of which is to accelerate the industry shuffling.

After a brief departure from the market in Xiang Lu and the Far East petrochemical PTA plant, this year

The basic balance is in excellent supply and demand in recent years. But this year, the current processing fee has been maintained at a low level of about 400 yuan per ton. Why is it difficult to expand the processing fee for the temporary surplus varieties? We believe that the main reason is that the big factory represented by Yisheng and Heng Li Petrochemical has changed its previous attitude to maintain the industry's profit and actively reduce production. This year, we should reduce production and maintenance as little as possible. Instead, we will carry out a lot of hedging when the profits are on the market. At the same time, we will generate a large quantity of warehouse receipts, resulting in a low level of processing fees.

The main logic of the reverse suit is that the Spring Festival is ahead of schedule this year, and the pressure on the 1701 contract is greater. The logic of the positive lies in the fact that the supply and demand is the best in the whole year and the possibility of capacity return in the far months.

I believe that the price difference of 140 yuan / ton can be properly set. Besides the reasons for the above set, there are two reasons. One is the existence period of 140 yuan / ton, and there is no risk at present.

It is possible that the price difference will be further expanded when the price is 140 yuan / ton, and the two is that some factories are selling off.

Now is not the time to go short.

11 in late mid month, supply increased and demand weakened. PTA has the possibility of returning to the weak.

In the medium term, the factory is likely to remain at a low level in order to speed up the industry reshuffle.

At the same time, the reverse price difference has reached the limit, and it can be properly intervened when it is over 140 yuan / ton.