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How Long Will The Colored Share Market Last? Four Major Drivers Boost

2010/10/6 17:39:00 44

Big round Wai Rao 2600 shocks, stocks are not lonely, of which gold and non-ferrous metals related stocks outstanding performance.

Nonferrous metals are a highly cyclical industry.

Metal

After experiencing a sharp fall in the financial crisis, the price began to experience a strong rebound in 2010, driven by four main factors, namely, the government has increased the import and export of imports, liquidity, inflation expectations and the depreciation of the US dollar.

Reflected in the stock market, the recent best performance of copper, aluminum and gold stocks is mainly because their financial attributes are strongest and the fundamentals of supply and demand are more optimistic.

In addition, the small metal industry also has excellent performance, which is mainly due to the concept of new energy vehicles on the power battery upstream resources and raw material stocks.

The driving force of rising non-ferrous metals comes from the following aspects:

First, the global economy is slowly recovering. Overall, the price of non-ferrous metals will remain stable throughout the whole year.

Among them, "China's demand" will play a supporting role in the price and demand of non-ferrous metals. However, high inventory, metal supply warming and the withdrawal of economic stimulus measures will form a certain pressure on metal prices.

Second, in 2010, the state continued to implement new energy vehicles.

Appliance industry

And other industries revitalization plan, indirectly stimulating the demand for non-ferrous metals.

After a gradual warming in 2010, demand will increase significantly in 2011.

At the end of the year, non-ferrous metals will be jointly driven by rapidly growing demand and inflation expectations, and the price of non-ferrous metals will continue to rise.

Investment in three, 2010 is still pulling.

Gross domestic product

The main engine of growth.

According to the calculation of fixed assets investment, GDP related elasticity coefficient and downstream end industry demand contribution, it is estimated that the actual demand for copper, aluminum, lead and zinc in China will grow by about 12%~16% in 2010.

The utilization rate of copper and aluminum has increased with demand.

Fourth, the dollar will maintain a moderate depreciation.

Under the hedging of the fundamental needs of real demand and the tightening of liquidity concerns, it is expected that the price of non-ferrous metals will slow down in a weak balance, and zinc, lead and copper varieties are expected to become a leading breed again.

In addition, as the gold with the strongest financial attributes, the global gold supply and demand side has been at a tight stage in the context of the gradual decline of global mineral resources and the reduction of the European Central Bank's stop selling volume. The long-term trend of gold prices is still more optimistic.

To sum up, from the "depreciation of the dollar" to "China factor" and then to "inflation expectations", it seems that every round of rising prices of non-ferrous metals can find the right reasons.

So how long will the colored share market last? As long as the above four major driving forces have not changed, the coloured share market will not end.