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Foreign Trade Will Grow Substantially This Year.

2011/2/15 10:00:00 57

Analysts pointed out that China's current external

Trade

It has returned to pre crisis levels, and the growth rate of imports and exports has reverted to the normal mean value range.

The latest figures released by the General Administration of Customs show that foreign trade in January

Import and export

The total value is $295 billion 10 million, an increase of 43.9% over the same period last year.

Of which, exports amounted to $150 billion 730 million, an increase of 37.7%, an increase of 5 months, and an increase of 51%, the highest in 6 months.

The trade surplus continued to narrow down to $6 billion 450 million, a decrease of 53.5%.

"Dollar exchange rate fell, international commodity prices rose and other factors pushed up the month.

Imported

The increase in volume and price led to a further narrowing of the surplus in January. "

He Weiwen, deputy director of the China Open Economy Research Institute of the University of foreign trade and economics, told China economic times that the import and export data in January reflected the continued improvement of the domestic and international economic situation.

The rise of international commodities during the January and Spring Festival is the main reason for the sharp increase in import value during the month.

At the same time, the import surge showed that the domestic economy continued to pick up, and the effect of the state's policy of encouraging imports further showed that the situation of China's import and export trade is developing towards a healthy direction.

The pick-up in exports has also slowed investors' worries about the two dip of China's economy and believes that it can achieve a soft landing.

In addition, the export growth reflects the overall demand for outside demand. The original worry about the US quantitative easing policy has not caused much impact. At the same time, it reflects the gradual recovery of the US economic recovery, the sustained recovery of the international economic situation and the acceleration of the unemployment rate.

China's exports to the US and the EU grew by 34.7% and 24.9% respectively, compared with 18% and 18.3% last month, according to country data in January.

With President Hu Jintao's visit to the US in January, China's imports from the United States increased by 50.3% in January, up from 28.2% last month.

For the world economy in the 2011, He Weiwen summed up a cloudy sunny day.

The world economic conference in 2011 is slightly better than in 2010. The growth rate of developed countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan will still linger at 2% to 3%, and the United States may exceed 3%, and the growth of emerging economies will remain strong.

Europe does not rule out a new crisis point in the sovereign debt crisis, such as Portugal, but Europe is still capable of dealing with it.

The US dollar will fluctuate and will not rule out the new currency war risk.

It is also important to note that US public debt and mortgage defaults continue to remain high, which will drag the recovery of employment.

Similarly, the economic growth of developed countries will be strong in the middle of 2011.

For this year's world trade, he thought it was sporadic drizzle.

The total volume of world trade in 2011 will increase by about 7%. Compared with the general recovery growth in 2010, it will mainly show substantial growth, which is roughly consistent with the long-term trend.

Demand will continue to grow in both developed and emerging economies.

Due to the usual lagging nature, trade frictions will remain at a higher level, but they can only be counted as sporadic drizzle compared with the general trend of growth.

In 2011, the overall pattern of world trade is still difficult to change fundamentally, but the status and industrial level of emerging economies will rise further. The international monetary market and the trend of crude oil, gold and grain prices deserve special attention.

Analysts pointed out that at present, China's foreign trade has returned to pre crisis levels, and the growth rate of imports and exports has reverted to the normal mean interval, and the possibility of significant changes is unlikely.

"From the current situation, the overall trade situation in the future should be more optimistic."

He Weiwen expects that the growth rate of imports and exports this year will be somewhat lower than that of last year, because last year was a resumption of growth, and this year is a substantial growth.

Prior to this, Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming also predicted that China's trade surplus would narrow in the next 5 years, and the possibility of currency or trade war would be very small.

He Weiwen stressed that the central economic work conference clearly stated that it would maintain the stability of foreign trade export policies, so the export policy should not be adjusted in the near future. For the recent rumors about the export tax rebate adjustment, He Weiwen said that it is only changing the industrial policies of some high energy consumption, two high and one capital industries, rather than export policies.