Price Drop Increased By &Nbsp; Cotton Market Prospect Is Unpredictable.

Cotton prices jumped from 34 thousand yuan / tonne in the first quarter of this year, and more and more news began. Cotton market Spread and suppress its price rise. For example, some export processing textile enterprises stop production and limit production, and textile export growth slows down. And in the last 2 months of the 2010/2011 cotton year, the news that new cotton is growing well and is expected to harvest has become a driving force to keep cotton prices down.

In the view of Wang Xiang, a senior cotton textile analyst, cotton prices are in a daze. According to the cost of planting, cotton seems to have fallen. And the impact of the rise in clothing prices, domestic and foreign market consumption is light, the prospect is unpredictable.

　 Cotton production increased by 20% in the next year.

Last week, a large textile enterprise in Shandong Wei Qiao recently lowered the purchase price of lint, and the panic spread throughout the whole cotton spinning industry chain. According to the latest data, the price of four grade lint has dropped to 18500 yuan / ton, and the price of cotton seed bought by cotton traders from cotton growers has dropped from the highest 7 yuan / Jin in November last year to the current 3-4 yuan / Jin.

Distance from new cotton list There are still 2 months to go. According to the Dongxing Futures Research Report, at present, the new cotton growing in Xinjiang and the Yellow River is growing well, showing obvious signs of high yield. In parts of northern Xinjiang, new cotton is expected to be listed before and after mid August. In Shanxi and Shaanxi, a small quantity of new cotton is expected to be listed in mid and late 8.

Recently, the China cotton reserve management company said that the increase in planting area and unit production will boost domestic cotton production this year. Cotton production in 2011/2012 cotton is expected to reach 7 million 400 thousand tons per year, an increase of 18.6% over the previous year. The stock has not gone, and the new cotton has arrived. The market is generally short of cotton prices. Ironically, almost at this time last year, the market started the first round of cotton price speculation on the basis of supply and demand gap.

　 It is unlikely that cotton prices will return below 20 thousand.

In July 20th, Wang Qian, a senior research fellow in cotton spinning industry and editor in chief of the first textile network, summed up the 2010/2011 cotton year and predicted the cotton price in the future.

Wang Qianjin believes that from the perspective of global cotton reserves and rigid demand, even if the output of cotton will increase in the coming year, the reserve capacity will still not reach the highest level in history, and the demand gap still exists. In addition, based on a statistical survey of cotton growers, it is estimated that the total cost per mu in 2011 is 1490.5 yuan, up 22.32% from 2010.

Reporters learned that, in terms of cost, the seed cotton purchase price in 2011 should be over 4.5 yuan / Jin, according to cottonseed price 2 yuan / kg, processing fee 500 yuan / ton, then the lint price corresponds to about 21 thousand yuan / ton. Therefore, it is unlikely that cotton prices will fall to below 20 thousand for a long time. If cotton prices fall below 20 thousand yuan / ton, cotton enterprises can consider buying strategically in batches.

Wang Qianjin believes that last year to the first quarter of this year, the soaring cotton prices suppressed the downstream consumer demand. At the same time, the US economic situation is less than expected this year, and the European debt crisis is spreading. The export situation of China's foreign trade textiles is more complicated. Coupled with the adverse factors such as crude oil price, raw material price, labor force price rise and export price increase, the order transfer and other unfavorable factors, the cotton price in the future will be above 20 thousand yuan level for a long time. The 25 thousand yuan / ton may become the new value center of cotton price in the next few years.