Ba Shu Song: Why Do We Have "Hard Landing" Doubts Nowadays?

　　 inflation Whether the inflection point is coming depends on three factors.

The complexity of the current inflation is manifested in the combination of the cycle and the trend factors, the superposition of domestic and international factors, the difficulty of governance and the new characteristics, which may force the tightening policy to be further extended, thereby increasing the potential risks of policy overshooting.

China's economy is running in the direction of policy expectation, and economic growth is gradually changing from policy stimulus to independent growth. Why is there a "hard landing" suspicion nowadays? In addition to the US debt crisis, the US debt rating downgrade and the European debt crisis and other financial market turbulence, some new trends in the macroeconomic sector are equally noteworthy.

First, monetary policy is typical. demand The appearance of management policy and its policy effect often lag behind. Usually, the effect after raising interest rate will only appear after three or four quarters. Since the 3 quarter of last year, the cumulative effect of interest rate increase will begin to appear in the three quarter, and the fourth quarter will be obvious.

Second, it depends on the inflection point of inflation and to a large extent determines the turning point of policy. The complexity of the current inflation is manifested in the combination of the cycle and the trend factors, the superposition of domestic and international factors, the difficulty of governance and the new characteristics, which may force the tightening policy to be further extended, thereby increasing the potential risks of policy overshooting.

Whether the inflationary inflection point is coming depends on the three ones. Factor First, monetary tightening will lead to a steady deceleration of the economy, which may become the thrust of downward inflation in the three or four quarter; two, when the inflation expectation effect and the substantial pulling effect of commodity price rise will weaken; three, the continuous rise in labor costs will become the persistent pull of inflation, and there is no sign of any turning point. On the whole, only three factors supporting inflation in the second half of this year are likely to decline.

Moreover, tightening policies tend to produce asymmetric effects, resulting in "uneven droughts and floods" for different regions, industries and enterprises. This higher growth itself implies structural imbalance. For example, large enterprises usually have strong bargaining power and access to credit resources. Even if the total credit volume shrinks, they can still get the quota more easily, thus squeezing the loan demand of SMEs and raising their capital costs.

So how do we keep it? Economics Stable and healthy development? According to the current situation, the next stage of policy should be flexible in adjusting the intensity and rhythm while keeping the primary goal of controlling inflation unchanged, and keeping a certain foresight, so as to prevent the superposition of the lagging, accumulative and market effects of the tightening policy. While maintaining the tight tone of macroeconomic policy, we should carry out appropriate "directional easing" for specific areas, including support for housing construction, and support for local investment and financing platforms.

Fundamentally speaking, we should promote economic restructuring and economic transformation, and foster new growth drivers for economic growth. In an environment of external market turbulence, we should focus on expanding domestic demand and improving the social security system. We will introduce more social capital into the real economy, relax the entry control of some industries with a higher threshold, and foster a new growth point for economic growth.