Industry Perspective: The Future Trend Of Cotton Market From Purchasing And Storage

The downtrend in September confirms the author's previous view that the trend of domestic cotton prices depends more on the situation of purchase and storage, and to a large extent, affects the trend of international cotton prices. In the short term, once the accounts are collected, it will play a positive role in boosting market confidence. In the long run, the progress and quantity of purchasing and storage will directly affect the trend of cotton prices in the middle and later stages of the year.

The National Day holiday has passed, how does the market go?

First of all, the downward pressure on international cotton prices remains unchanged. The pressure of supply and demand in the international market is hard to alleviate in the short term. First, as the world's second largest producer and exporter, India's cotton growth is generally good. The cotton production per year has reached or even exceeded the expected increase, and export expectations are also increasing. According to the Cotton Advisory Committee of India, the export volume of cotton in India is likely to expand to 1 million 200 thousand tons. Second, the global economic situation is still not good. The economic downturn and possible recession in Europe and the United States are expected to affect the further improvement of clothing consumption. If negative emotions can not be improved, and terminal consumer goods need to digest the price rise caused by rising costs in the first half of 2011, downstream demand. Sluggish The situation may continue.

Secondly, domestic market pressure comes from more capital. Compared with the same period last year, the capital of this year's acquisition of enterprises is quite different from that of the same period last year. The number of social idle funds has been greatly reduced, and the orders of downstream enterprises have not been enthusiastic. With the arrival of the peak season of purchase in October, the problem of shortage of funds will become more prominent, which will largely affect the upward trend of prices.

In addition, the supporting role of the four consecutive weeks of closing and closing the market has been weakening. With the development of the acquisition process, a large number of previously imported cotton will arrive in Hong Kong, and the declaration must be made before the end of December. It is estimated that the cotton imports will be concentrated in the next three months, which will put pressure on the market and increase the possibility that market prices will close to the reserve price.

If the above judgments are accurate, the current domestic cotton price is " Chicken ribs "Let many buyout businesses taste tasteless and discard them. Judging from the recent acquisition of enterprises, the mainland's sporadic listing is mostly 4 seeded flowers, and the price of the cotton lint is generally 17000 yuan / ton up and down. It is hard to say whether the purchase price is high or not. The purchase price of 3 or more flowers is very high. In the case of 4.5 yuan / Jin, the mainland is around 4.3 yuan / kg, considering that the price of cotton seed is not as high as expected at present. The cost of conversion is generally close to 20000 yuan / ton. The space for storage is not large, but many enterprises are unwilling to give up the purchase. Others hope that with the large number of cotton coming into the market, the purchase price can be lowered and the average price of Xinjiang can be reduced. More companies will focus on futures, and it is foreseeable that the future market pressure will be very large, and the price trend will remain empty.

In 2012, how do we go about the cotton market? I think we should look at the "two ends": see how much energy can be stored in the country and see whether consumption can improve.

The end of the year is crucial for textile terminal consumption. The situation of weak demand can not be changed in the short term. Next year, we must first look at whether the European and American economies will decline or not. During the "eleven" period, the major financial markets in the world were rocking. The employment data of the US economy improved and the US stocks continued to rise. The European Commission's news on restructuring the eurozone banks also stimulated the general trend of European stock market. But then Fitch lowered the sovereign credit rating of Italy and Spain, and Moodie lowered the rating of 21 British and Portuguese banks, which also had an impact on the financial market. Whether the international economic environment is improving or short-lived is still to be observed. The negative impact on textile exports is unlikely to be eliminated in a short time.

There are still many negative factors. The exchange rate of RMB exchange rate is in full swing. The pressure of RMB appreciation will not be reduced in the future, and trade frictions may aggravate. The domestic SMEs' living environment will continue to deteriorate, and the deficit will continue to increase.

Although the current factor is dominant, the possibility of short time fluctuation or even uplift of cotton prices remains. Judging from the international market, the amount of cotton signed in the US in 2011 is more than half, and its output is serious. The stock available for export may be lower than expected, creating conditions for ICE fluctuations. From the domestic perspective, when will the slide tax quota be issued in 2012? How much space will it offer to the future market? These are unknown, so it is too early to make a clear judgement of the cotton trend.

Although the current factor is dominant, the possibility of short time fluctuation or even uplift of cotton prices remains.