The Fall Comes To An End; &Nbsp; Three Factors Determine The Trend This Week.

about A shares This week's trend is the periphery dominated by the European debt crisis. Plunge The impact of market mainstreaming on A shares may have been. Weaken Domestic factors are the key factors to decide the closing of A shares this year.

At home and abroad, the A shares fell sharply last week, and 2400 points failed to resist too much. As of Friday's close, the Shanghai stock index reported 2380 points, the Shenzhen composite index reported 9886 points, and the 10000 point mark was also broken again. But compared with the external stock market, A shares Stock index The whole week fell by only 1.5%, which is "strong".

The US stock market fell again last week. As of Friday's close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 25.61 points to 11231.94 points, or 0.23%, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 18.50 points to 2441.58 points, or 0.75%, while the standard & Poor's 500 index fell 3.12 points to 1158.67 points. Decline It is 0.27%. Because Thursday is Thanksgiving Day, the US stock market is closed, and Friday is only half day trading, so the transaction is very light. On the whole, Dow index fell 4.8%, the NASDAQ fell 5.1%, and the S & P 500 fell 4.7%.

European stock markets finally closed up last Friday, ending the six Lian Yin. Storck Pan European 600 index closed up 0.7%, at 221.54 points. However, the index continued to fall by 4.6% this week. The French CAC 40 index rose 1.2%, closing at 2856.97 points, the German DAX 30 index rose 1.2%, and reported 5492.87 points; the FTSE 100 index rose 0.7%, and reported 5164.65 points.

In terms of bulk commodities, crude oil, which is independent of the whole commodity trend since October, has remained relatively weak. As of Friday's close, New York crude oil futures closed at $96.77 a barrel, or 0.66%. London Beihai Brent crude oil futures closed at $106.40 a barrel, or 1.08%. The New York Mercantile Exchange's gold futures in December fell 0.6% to 1685.70 dollars an ounce.

For the A stock week trend, the impact of the external slump dominated by the European debt crisis may have weakened the influence of the A stock market, and domestic factors are the key factors to decide the end of the A share market this year. First, whether the slowdown in domestic economic growth can be curbed or reversed. Last week's HSBC PMI index fell to 48 last week, which has been a big blow to the market. The data released by the National Bureau of statistics at the weekend also showed that in the first October, the profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size reached 41217 yuan, an increase of 25.3% over the previous year, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous September. After June this year, the profits of industrial enterprises continued to decline. Analysis shows that the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises is expected to rebound in the middle of next year. {page_break}

Secondly, the 2012 central economic work conference will be held soon, and the tone of fiscal policy and monetary policy next year is still the focus of the market. According to the analysis of China Securities Journal, it is expected that the conference's policy setting for 2012 is still a prudent monetary policy and a positive fiscal policy. Monetary policy is generally sound, timely adjustment and preview, emphasizing the foresight, flexibility and pertinence; and the "positive" fiscal policy is mainly focused on "structural tax cuts".

Third, whether there will be loosening of real estate regulation. Li Keqiang recently held a forum on the construction of affordable housing in Hebei, emphasizing that the regulation of the real estate market has achieved some success, but it is still in a critical period. We must persist in implementing policies and measures to curb the excessive rise in housing prices, and further consolidate the regulatory results. We should continue to push forward the construction of affordable housing projects, ensure good quality safety and fair distribution, and better play the multiple roles of affordable housing in building people's livelihood, stabilizing housing prices, expanding domestic demand and promoting development.

Technically, the stock index has been hindered by the impact of the 3067 point drop channel, which has been down for three consecutive weeks. It is only a step away from the previous low point of 2307. However, through the extremely low turnover, no one dared to act reckless because of the chips in the hands of both sides. On the minute chart, the signs of MACD bottom departure are more and more prominent. At this time, the stock index continues to accelerate downwards, which is a trap for fear. In addition, the KDJ index has been below or approaching the oversold area below 20.

On the whole, it is unlikely that the market will drop again this week, but it is still necessary to take the policy of "giving strength" to the policy side to shake off the downturn. Operation, near the end of the year, new year's Spring Festival holiday is coming, the consumption plate represented by liquor deserves attention. On the other hand, the industry planning with the core of the 12th Five-Year plan has been promulgated, and relevant beneficial sectors and stocks are also good choices, such as the national "water-saving irrigation development" 12th Five-Year plan, and the "12th Five-Year plan" for the large-scale irrigation district renewal and water-saving transformation.