Quick Exchange Money: Yellen Pigeon Faction Reappears The Euro Has Lost Its Strength.

< p > the data released by the United States show that the United States in March Chicago PMI 55.9, hit the lowest in August 2013, expected 59.8, the former value of 59.8.

Then the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Yellen, delivered a speech. The words "Pigeon" poured cold water on the "six months" speech made before the Fed meeting. It is likely that the purchase of debt and low interest rate measures to boost the US economy will continue for a period of time. At the same time, there is still a lot of idle capacity in the US economy and employment market. It is these idle capacity that has led to a sharp decline in the labour force participation rate.

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< p > obviously, under the words "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "> fed < /a > Yellen's" capricious "remarks, investors can only rely on more US economic data to judge the Fed's policy trend.

The United States will release data on manufacturing PMI and February construction expenditure in March, and investors can further explore the recent developments in the US economy.

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< p > < strong > < a > href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > Euro > /a > no fear weak CPI > /strong > /p >

< p > data released by the European Union Statistics Bureau on Monday showed that the initial value of CPI in the euro area increased by 0.5% in March, down from 0.6% and the lowest level since November 2009.

As euro zone inflation further declined in March, market participants saw an increase in the possibility of introducing quantitative easing measures by the European Central Bank [micro-blog].

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< p > but it is surprising that the increase in deflation risk in the euro area has not weighed heavily on the euro in the past. Instead, it quickly rebounded after a fall and refreshed its intraday highs, leaving the V reversal.

For such a strange market, many investment banks believe that the euro has been boosted by the fact that "selling is expected to buy facts". In the meantime, the market still doubts whether the European Central Bank will really cut interest rates or launch QE on Thursday.

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P, however, in any case, the euro zone's overall a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > CPI < /a > only 0.5% is still firmly established, which makes it difficult for the ECB policymakers to feel relaxed.

Although some investors believe that the euro area inflation will rebound after the revival of the festival, but it is far from the 2% target set by the European Central Bank.

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< p > according to a recent Bloomberg survey, 54 of the economists surveyed by 57 investment bank economists expect the ECB to maintain interest rates unchanged.

Among the three investment banks holding different opinions, the agricultural credit bank and the banks of Denmark are expected to cut the benchmark interest rate to 0.15%, while Goldman Sachs expects the central bank to cut interest rates to 0.1%.

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< p > Citigroup economists believe that the possibility of easing monetary policy by the European Central Bank is still there, though it is not considered that the ECB will fully agree with loosening at the Thursday meeting.

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P, therefore, the ECB may sooner or later take more lenient action, even if it may not be the next or next time, and its specific action prospects may be led by external news.

For investors who deal with the euro, the three trading days this week clearly need to be vigilant. The euro exchange rate may not be clear before Thursday's interest rate decision, but the possibility of a big shock can not be ruled out.

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< p > < strong > RBA interest rate decision /strong /strong >

At the time of 11:30 Beijing time, the RBA will announce the interest rate resolution. At present, the market is widely expected that the RBA will not act. But investors need to pay attention to the policy statement after the resolution. We should pay special attention to the words of the RBA on exchange rate and policy trend. If the RBA reemphasizes the high exchange rate and has further relaxed expectations, then the Aussie will be under pressure. P

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< p > the Commonwealth Bank of Australia said that record high housing prices and inflation are higher than the Fed's interim data, which will keep the RBA interest rate unchanged, despite the high Australian dollar exchange rate and the Australian economy.

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For a period of time, in the market bet that the RBA will not take any additional loose actions in the near future, the Australian dollar / Australian dollar has been on the rise since last week. Although the performance of China's economic data is poor and the economic growth prospects are worrying, the Australian dollar rally has not been significantly affected, but it is stronger because of the expectation that China may introduce new stimulus measures. P

But if this expectation fails, it is possible to suppress the Australian dollar's fall.

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China's official purchasing managers' index rose to 50.3 in March, according to the data released by China, which is in line with market expectations. However, the expansion rate was slightly faster and the previous value was 50.2. P

The data released by HSBC /Market in April 1st showed that the final value of HSBC manufacturing PMI in China was 48 in March, 48.1 in early March and 48.5 in February.

This is the index for third consecutive months under the dividing line of prosperity and decline.

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< p > the above two data are good or bad, respectively, making the Australian dollar exchange rate reach a high level of 0.92919, down to 0.92541, and now on the 0.928 line.

It can be seen that the Australian dollar trend may be dominated by the RBA interest rate decision later announced. How the Australian Federal Reserve describes the Australian economy and how to view the trend of exchange rate in the statement is worthy of close attention from investors.

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