Stronger Control Of Economic Policies With Increased Price Fluctuations

This week, the US dollar index in the foreign exchange market maintained a relatively high fluctuation and adjustment. The trend of the price index is still that the US dollar seeks to depreciate. The index range is circuitous between 80.2 and 80.8 points, but the upward thrust is large, and the actual countermeasures support depreciation. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the euro was in the downward range of US $1.36, and the level on Wednesday was US $1.3589. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the British pound rose from US $1.68 to US $1.67. During this period, the exchange rate of the British pound even had a performance of US $1.6699, but the British pound appreciated to 2.12% in the past six months. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Australian dollar also fluctuated from 0.92 to 0.93 US dollars. The US dollar rose to US $0.84 from US $0.85 against the New Zealand dollar. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Swiss franc remained basically stable at 0.89 Swiss francs. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar was stable at a narrow range of 1.08 Canadian dollars. The USD/JPY exchange rate was stable at Y101.

　　1、 dollar The demand for homeopathy is obvious. The goal of the US dollar index and the purpose of the US dollar policy have not changed, especially the understanding of the essence of the exchange rate and the proficiency in exchange rate technology, which directly led to the phased and strategic adjustment of the trend of the US dollar index. In fact, from the perspective of US economic indicators, there are not only many doubts, but also long-term considerations. On the one hand, the pessimism of the US economic data stimulates the US dollar to rise, so as to maintain the need for confidence and the opportunity for technical adjustment, but there are doubts and doubts about the actual state. The economic correction data in the first quarter turned from a growth of 0.1% to - 1.0%, and the expected level was - 0.5%, which increased the rise of the dollar index, and the psychological response to suppress panic was very sharp. On the other hand, the number of durable goods orders in the United States rose 0.8% in April, which was expected to decline by 0.5%, and the value in March was adjusted from 2.5% growth to 3.6% growth, which is completely contrary to the downward revision of the above quarterly comprehensive economic value. In addition, some other economic data do not show such a pessimistic decline level of the U.S. economy, The concern of the US economy is not the state of the real economy, but rather the demand for psychological strategies. The artificially manufactured data guidance deserves attention and research. American economy Growth indicators The mismatch between the decline of the US dollar exchange rate and the actual data is intriguing. This is the need for the maturity of the US dollar policy strategy, or a situation judgment and strategic path that can be guided by the competitive strategy. Therefore, the singularity of the US dollar exchange rate change is worth observing and studying. The need and strategy of US dollar technical adjustment is the main reason and background.

　　2、 Periodicity It is necessary to adjust the factors. Judging from the trend of exchange rate in the international market for nearly half a year, the depreciation trend of the US dollar is very obvious. The US dollar index is stable at 79 points, and the performance of cautiously rising at 80 points highlights the economic needs and interest demands of the US dollar technology selection, which leads to a clear goal of the US dollar main line competition, that is, the rise of the euro is obvious, but it seriously violates the actual economic data and psychological responses. The large economic gap between the United States and Europe brings about the directional operation of the exchange rate, which requires not only technical guidance, but also strategic control and control. The complexity of the whole financial market lies in the confusion of prices, and the simplicity lies in the influence and drive of the main line of the dollar. The US dollar has grasped the basic characteristics of the market, the rhythm and law of the upper and lower cycles, and the homeopathy and initiative adjustment are very mature and assertive.

3. Public opinion is mixed, less comprehensive and more extreme. With the change of the US dollar index, especially the adjustment of the US economic data, the market public opinion has a strong mobility, and the discussions that conform to the tone and strategic orientation of the US public opinion are prominent, but the rationality of realistic assessment is less, especially the lack of in-depth and thorough research, and thus the expected judgment is highly influenced, including the public opinion guidance of China's RRR reduction. In fact, the choice of market economy requires comprehensive indicators, clear strategic choices and effective self judgment, not an extreme or passive response to data. Therefore, no matter why the analysis of more currencies such as the US dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound needs basic reasons, it needs more comprehensive observation. Choosing the base point and position of the data is a key point, otherwise the inaccurate evaluation, or even being kidnapped, will affect the real development and effective prediction. It seems to be methodology, but it is actually the destination. In particular, the dollar evaluation method will affect the judgment results and actual performance.

It is expected that the periodic adjustment period of the dollar index will make the exchange rate more tangled, and the appreciation of the dollar and the depreciation of the dollar are intertwined and difficult to determine, especially because of the choice between the economy and policy. Maybe there will be a greater differentiation between the price forecast and the actual situation, but the basic goal of the dollar index will not change fundamentally, and the span of indicators throughout the year will increase The increased range and accelerated pace will highlight the market volatility. The combination and dislocation of major currencies will also be obvious, but the impact of the exchange rate will be weakened by the strengthening of market affordability and responsiveness, so prudent assessment and rational response are very necessary.