In August, A Number Of Indicators Dropped Policy Continued To Directional Force.

In the three quarter, the GDP growth rate of GDP may be reduced to nearly 7%, and the target of economic growth of about 7.5% will be greater than that of the whole year.

Zhang Yongjun, a researcher at China International Economic Exchange Center, pointed out that the data is somewhat unexpected, especially the industrial added value, although it is related to the speed of economic growth in August last year, but combined with the comprehensive analysis of financial and foreign trade data, the downward pressure on the economy is still very large, and the steady growth is still the first.

Efforts to support the economy should be stepped up, including lowering interest rates and lowering standards.

"Because last year the weather and

The reason is that falling data should be in line with everyone's expectations, but I am afraid that such a substantial drop is worth vigilance.

Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, pointed out that the three major demand fell at the same time, which made the economic pressure increase again, especially the cumulative investment growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points, indicating that the investment in a single month is rapidly landing, which is worth paying attention to the hard landing of the economy.

Data show that in August, China's industrial added value of above scale increased by 6.9% in real terms, down 2.1 percentage points from July, and dropped to a low point of nearly 6 years. The total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 11.9% compared with nominal growth in the same period, and the growth rate declined for 4 consecutive months, falling to an annual low point, 0.3 percentage points lower than that in July.

It is worth noting that from 1 to August, the fixed asset investment in China increased by 16.5% compared to the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 0.5 percentage points from 1 to July.

The year-on-year growth rate also hit a new low growth rate of investment over the past 13 years since 2002.

In the past ten odd years, especially after 2003, China's fixed assets investment has maintained a rapid growth of more than 20% per year.

However, after 2013, investment growth decelerated significantly. China's fixed asset investment fell below 20% for the first time in 10 years.

This year, in the real estate market continued to cool down under the drag, the cumulative growth rate of investment is declining month by month.

But official interpretation of the data is not so pessimistic.

Guo Tongxin, the general secretary of the National Bureau of statistics, said that the number of data in August has dropped for a while. Both the reasons for the recovery of the world economy are still warm and cold, and the demand for foreign countries has been sluggish. They are also affected by the special factors such as cardinal numbers and climate.

"We should take a comprehensive view of the new situation and changes in the economic operation in August.

Under the new normal situation of economic operation, some indicators fluctuating is normal, to some extent, it is also the result of market independent adjustment.

Guo Tongxin pointed out that "at present, the employment and price situation is generally stable, and structural adjustment continues to make new progress, and the economic operation is still in a reasonable range."

Increase policy orientation support

The fluctuation of the major economic indicators in August caused the concern about the "hard landing" of China's economy.

However, as premier Li Keqiang said at the summer Davos forum, "looking at the Chinese economy, we should not just look at the local situation, see the" single subject ", but also look at the trend, look at the overall situation and see the total score.

Analysts pointed out that although the growth of some economic indicators in August has dropped somewhat, the economic operation is still in a reasonable range, and China's steady economic progress has not changed.

However, it is difficult to achieve 7.5% of the target year, and calls for more policy oriented support while lowering interest rates.

"Under such circumstances, we must take immediate and vigorous policies to stabilize economic growth. Otherwise, if the economic downturn trend is formed, whether the GDP target can be completed in the whole year will be worrisome."

Li Huiyong pointed out that, in particular, we should increase the allocation of financial funds and the construction of government led infrastructure projects, and also reduce the cost of social financing by cutting interest rates and activate the vitality of private economy.

In addition, from the perspective of expected guidance, we should tell the market that the situation is rather grim now, and we need a shift in policy focus.

Haitong Securities macroeconomic analyst Jiang Chao believes that in August, the industrial growth rate fell to a low point for many years, indicating that the growth rate of GDP in the three quarter dropped to 7% or so. The growth rate of infrastructure investment was limited by the steady growth effect, and its sales declined sharply. The continued negative growth of sales dragged down real estate investment, overcapacity and deleveraging made investment in manufacturing industry continue to slump.

"It will be more difficult to accomplish about 7.5% target in the whole year, and the policy will be looser in the later stage. One will speed up the construction of infrastructure projects. Two, it will be more urgent to reduce social financing costs and increase the probability of lowering interest rates."

Jiang Chao pointed out.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications Financial Research Center, believes that under the background of slowing economic growth, it is difficult to sustain a sharp rebound in growth in income growth.

At present, it is particularly necessary to cultivate new consumption hot spots, improve the consumption environment and appropriately stimulate consumption policies.