Japan's Economy Is In Deep Structural Trouble

Here world Clothing and shoes The Xiaobian of the network tells you that the Japanese economy is in a structural predicament.

Because the risk of Japan's economic downturn is highlighting, the vocabulary most commonly mentioned by Japanese scholars has now changed from "recovery" to "recession". The recent series of data shows that the Japanese economy suffered the worst cold spell since Abe Shinzo's two administration. In the two quarter of this year, Japan's GDP shrank by 7.1%, the biggest decline in 5 years. The trade deficit in the first half was 5 trillion and 427 billion 100 million yen, a new high in 1979. consumption Demand is still shrinking, and trade imbalance is hard to reverse.

At present, "Andouble economics" is being questioned more and more. The latest poll results released by Kyodo news show that more than 84% of Japanese people do not feel the effect of Andouble's economic policy on the economy.

Japan's gross domestic product is mainly composed of domestic demand, while exports and related industries account for only 20%. Therefore, economic growth is mainly driven by domestic consumption and investment. Since the launch of the Andouble economics in 2013, quantitative easing and positive fiscal policies have led to the growth of the consumption and public investment of the rich, making the Japanese economy look prosperous. The official evaluation of the economic situation has also been upgraded from "slow recovery" to "recovery". However, in April this year, Andouble raised the consumption tax from 5% to 8%. In order to improve the serious fiscal deficit and strengthen social security, Japan's economy was lifted from the long term depression. However, the Japanese economy, which had just begun to recover, was hit hard by the fact that the polarization between the rich and the poor was further aggravated and the domestic demand was seriously insufficient, which led to the Japanese economy turning from "weakness" to today's "potential turning point" (the edge of recession). Andouble originally planned to raise the consumption tax again in 2015, but the bad economic performance at that time forced him to postpone the implementation of the plan.

At present, the Japanese economy is in a structural predicament, but structural reform is difficult. Aging and low birth rate are the chronic diseases of Japanese society, which lead to a series of problems, such as insufficient labor supply, high cost of protection and the decline of innovation ability. It is difficult to achieve the "reverse revival" of the economy only by quantitative easing and fiscal expansion. In early September, Andouble adjusted the high-level personnel of the Liberal Democratic Party and reorganized the cabinet, and set up a "local creation minister" aiming at the problems of "local economic vitality" and "labor shortage". In addition, Japan also faces many challenges: under the trend of "hollowing out industry", corporate tax reduction will not necessarily promote investment return; before the Fukushima nuclear pollution shadow is over, high-end agricultural products can hardly become an export dominant industry; the fiscal deficit is high, and the increase of employment through new nursing homes is constrained by budgets.

In the short term, fiscal stimulus may become a "life-saving straw". The budget of the Japanese government for economic reconstruction and deflation in 2014 is up to 72 trillion and 600 billion yen (100 yen or 5.67 yuan), most of which will be used in the second half of the year. But in the long run, Japan Getting rid of structural difficulties is not a temporary achievement. Without deepening reform, promoting competition and technological innovation and raising the potential growth rate, the Andouble administration will not be able to fundamentally save the Japanese economy.