Analysis Of Influencing Factors In Cotton Market

US side: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index 49.4, expected 50.6, the former value 46.2; June consumer confidence index 101.4, expected 97.1, the former value 95.4; June ADP employment change 237 thousand, is expected to 218 thousand, the former value is 201 thousand; in June, Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is 53.6, the expected and former value is 53.4; June ISM manufacturing index is 53.4, the highest since January; last week, the number of unemployed unemployment is expected, the expected value is expected to be;

　　欧元区方面：欧元区6月消费者信心指数终值-5.6，预期-5.5，前值-5.6;欧元区6月企业、工业及经济信心指数分别为0.14、-3.4和103.5，都较上月回落;德国6月失业率(季调后)为6.4%;德国5月实际零售销售年率-0.4%，大幅弱于预期和前值，月率为0.5%，也大幅低于前值;英国第一季度GDP年率终值2.9%，预期为2.5%，前值为2.4%;月率为0.4%，预期0.4%，前值0.3%;意大利、法国、德国、英国和欧元区6月制造业采购经理人指数为54.1、50.7、51.9、51.4和52.5，法国好于预期和前值，继续扩张，意大利于和英国萎缩，德国和欧元区持平;欧元区6月综合采购经理人指数终值54.2，预期和前值为54.1;欧元区5月零售销售年率为2.4%，预期为2.3%，前值为2.2%;希腊同国际债券人谈判破裂，希腊关闭银行并实施资本管制，周日举行公投。

China: in June, the purchasing managers' index of manufacturing industry was 50.2, which was expected to be 50.4, the former value was 50.2, four months above the ups and downs line; the non Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was 53.8, the former value was 53.2; in June, the HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was 49.4, expected 49.6, the former value 49.6; the domestic stock market fell sharply, the shock intensified, and the recent bailout market.

Frequent moves, such as suspending the issuance of new shares and setting up funds to stabilize the stock market, show that the government is determined to intervene in the stock market and maintain liquidity in the stock market.

This week's ICE cotton futures price is on the high side. It is mainly supported by some positive factors. First, in June 30th, the US Department of Agriculture released the actual planting area report of the US cotton 2015/16. The actual planting area of the United States cotton in the year of 8 million 998 thousand is about 18.47% acres, a decrease of 18.47% Mu compared with the same period in March. Compared with the 9 million 549 thousand acre planting area in March, it reduced 551 thousand acres, of which the land cotton area was 8 million 850 thousand acres, a decrease of 18.40% over the same period last year; Pima cotton 148 thousand acres, a decrease of 22.92% over the same period.

The report estimates that the data are below 9 million 150 thousand acres expected by the market, and the estimated data is the lowest level since 1983.

Rainfall in Texas, the largest cotton producing state in the United States, has impeded cotton planting. The sowing rate in this state has been slower than in previous years and in other states, which may cause a decrease in planting area. Other cotton producing areas also cause delays in the accumulation of water and planting in the cotton fields due to excessive rainfall in spring.

The US Department of Agriculture said it would investigate Dezhou again after the recent floods.

The reduction in planting area is expected to be the most important factor in the week, supporting Tuesday's price increase; two is good sales data from the US cotton market, and the US Department of agriculture's cotton exports on Thursday.

In the week of June 25th, cotton exports in the US 2014/15 were net sales of 80500 packs, an increase of 33% over the previous week, an increase of 22% over the previous four weeks. The main export destinations were Vietnam, Indonesia and Turkey. During the week, the United States 2014/15 cotton export shipment of 230400 packs, an increase of 23% over the previous week, mainly to Vietnam, Indonesia and Mainland China, according to the US Department of agriculture, as of June 18th, the US 2014/15 year.

The net export volume reached 2 million 523 thousand tons, reaching 107% of the USDA forecast, which is 104% higher than that of the same period last year.

US cotton shipments totaled 2 million 206 thousand tons, reaching 94% of USDA forecast, 93% higher than that of the same period last year. Whether from weekly or overall, the US cotton sales overall are better; three is China's dumping and storage, according to the price announced by the Chinese government, we can see that the reserve price of cotton auction is higher than the current price, and high price dumping is beneficial to the stability of domestic and international cotton prices.

The above factors supported the December contract price, which stayed near 68 cents, and hit a 11 month high on Thursday.

　　从本周的走势也可以看出，这些利好因素影响有限，价格没有形成实质涨幅，周二盘中还出现大幅的下挫，显然棉价还是受一些利空因素所束缚，本周的主要利空因素一是希腊目前的紧急援助计划周二到期，其与国际债券人间关于紧急救助的谈判破裂，投资者担心没有了国际援助贷款，希腊将违约并开始退出欧元区，投资者的风险厌恶情绪造成全球股市、大宗商品等资产市场被大量抛售，棉花也受此负面影响;二是年末库存居于高位，需求改善阻力重重，国际棉花咨询委员会周三公布的数据显示，2015/16年度全球棉花产量为2392万吨，消费量2491万吨，产量上调而需求预估下降，全球年末库存上调11万吨至2090万吨，棉花结转库存继续上升，供应过剩有加重之势，中国和印度都在释放储备棉，供应增加需求却没有相应增加，加上美元走强，市场多头信心不足，之前一

After the week rose, speculators bought the market to cool down, and investors took profits before the long weekend holidays, which inhibited the rebound in prices and fell slightly in the adjustment.