Qian Qing: Pure Polyester Yarn Is Weak And Hard To Change. Cotton Yarn Is Generally Traded.

Cotton yarn is generally sold in cotton mills.

Strong and steady quotation.

today

All cotton yarn sales continue to be light, no variety support, atmosphere finishing tired, 32S high matching mainstream price 21000 yuan / ton.

Pure polyester yarn wait-and-see is weak and difficult to change, shipments are flat and dominant, and the shipment of the cotton mill continues, 32S

11200 yuan / ton.

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At present, PTA is in an overall supply surplus pattern. The supply curve is relatively flat. The price reduction effect is not obvious. Many PTA production enterprises are near the cost line, so the PTA price is relatively sensitive to the cost.

As mentioned above, the oil price slump is one of the "culprits" of the PTA cut. When will the oil price go up? The sharp drop in oil price is caused by the imbalance between supply and demand caused by shale oil technology.

The slowdown in China's economic growth is likely to result in a significant increase in global demand in the short term. The stabilization of oil prices depends on a global reduction in production.

Several major investment banks believe that at least the end of 2016, the supply and demand pattern of the crude oil market can achieve a new balance.

Supply should be compressed.

Overcapacity should be the main reason for the PTA slump.

Supply and demand at both ends, not only did not decline in fact, but rather increased, but demand growth is relatively lower than the PTA capacity growth.

Once the problem of excess supply of PTA is solved, the day of PTA's "rebirth of Nirvana" is coming.

At present, the new capacity of PTA has basically been put into operation. Considering that the government will further control the approval of the projects in excess industries, the possibility of further increase in PTA production capacity in the future is very small.

When PTA prices are low, manufacturers are losing money, and everyone is sticking to it.

Although the cycle of eliminating excess capacity is longer, the collapse of Yuandong petrochemical company this year has marked the beginning of this process.

Demand needs to be released.

The slowdown in China's economic growth is inevitable. Even with the upgrading of industry through economic upgrading, the demand for primary products such as PTA is unlikely to increase significantly.

Especially due to the rise of labor costs, garment processing enterprises in Europe and the United States have been returning to their own countries or pferring to Southeast Asia. The demand for domestic PTA is even more difficult to counter attack.

The author believes that the way out for PTA industry may be to produce polyester and export to Southeast Asia, and its realization is very long.