The United States: The Improvement Of The Job Market Is Hard To Explain That The Rate Hike Will Soon Catch Up.

In June, there were 287 thousand new jobs in the US non-agricultural sector, up from 180 thousand expected by the market.

Analysts believe that the report on the strong growth of new jobs has eased the worries of the weak economic growth in the United States to some extent, but more experts believe that the improvement of the job market can hardly explain that the interest rate hike will catch up soon.

The report shows that the growth rate of new employment population in the United States in June was the highest since October last year.

In the second quarter, there were 147 thousand new jobs in the United States, lower than the 196 thousand increase in the first quarter, and also far below the average growth rate of 229 thousand last month.

In addition, as more people joined the ranks of job seekers and the base number increased, the unemployment rate in June increased from 4.7% in the previous month to 4.9%.

The labour force participation rate, which measures the proportion of employed and employed people to the working age population, has increased from 62.6% in the previous month to 62.7%.

Affected by that, the three major indexes of the New York stock market rose on the same day.

Analysts believe that the substantial improvement in employment data in June shows that the US employment market is close to full employment level, and the economy remains stable.

Yellen, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said last year that the number of new jobs increased to about 100 thousand a month would be enough to absorb the new employment market.

Jason Furman, chairman of the White House Economic Advisory Committee, said 8 days that the number of new jobs increased substantially in June compared with May, indicating that the US economy remains stable.

Harry Holzer, a senior research fellow at the Brookings Institution of the US think tank, said that the June employment report should help cool down the worries of the recession. Especially after the referendum in Britain, the market is concerned about the uncertainty of economic growth.

Hall also pointed out that this report shows

It is still improving steadily, but the pace has slowed down compared with before.

The economic advisory body Kay voted that the US economy recovered significantly in the second quarter, while manufacturing and services data rebounded strongly in June and other labour market indicators continued to improve, indicating that employment growth in the future will continue to improve.

Barclays also said that if the employment data in July continue to improve, then the risk of recession will be significantly reduced.

The summary of the June monetary policy meeting released by the Federal Reserve Committee showed that because of the increase in the uncertainty of the US employment market and the international factors such as the referendum of Britain's "off Europe" and so on, the economic uncertainty also increased. The Federal Reserve decided not to raise interest rates at the regular meeting of monetary policy in June.

But most Fed officials believe that the job market has improved significantly, and other labour market indicators have continued to improve.

Although the employment figures improved in June, the market was reduced to some extent.

Concerns, however, analysts pointed out that this is not enough for the fed to press the rate hike button.

When inflation rates reach the Fed's target, the impact of the referendum on the US economy will remain to be seen.

Daniel Tarullo, the Fed chairman, said recently that the Fed could wait for some time to continue raising interest rates to make sure that inflation rose steadily to the Fed's goal.

Tarullo pointed out that the US economy is not overheating.

The Fed has the right tools to cope with the overheating of the economy, but if the economy deteriorates, the Federal Reserve's tools will be very limited.

Therefore, the Fed can only take a slow pace in raising interest rates.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has also said that the US Federal Reserve can be more patient in raising interest rates, taking into account the continued low inflation rate in the United States and the uncertainty of Britain's "off Europe".

He said that the US economy is performing well, but it is too early to judge the impact of Britain's "off Europe".

In addition, foreign media quoted Harris, an economist at the Bank of America and Merrill Lynch, as saying that the US economy's dependence on exports is lower than that of other developed countries, and that the extravasation effect of Britain's "off Europe" referendum results on the US economy is relatively small. The trend of the US economy shows the efforts and steps to get out of its own crisis.

The new jobs and strong job seekers in the US in June are some positive signals and highlights of the latest release of the US job market and even the US economy, but it will take longer and more data to confirm the sustainability of the prospects.

In a situation where the economic environment is still fragile and the recovery needs to be nurturing, analysts generally expect the Federal Reserve to carefully consider monetary policy and not press the rate hike button easily.