PTA Price Will Show A Downward Trend.

According to the economic data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the industrial added value increased by 6.1% in October, unchanged from last month.

Despite the sharp rise in industrial prices, the production side did not accelerate expansion under the restriction of supply side reform.

In terms of structure, the production of mining industry dropped by 2.2% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was negative again. The improvement of PPI led to a slight increase in the manufacturing industry. In October, the growth rate of manufacturing production was slightly improved, an increase of 6.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from September.

Among the major industries,

The improvement of medicine, general equipment and computer is obvious; automobile, pport equipment, nonferrous metals, rubber and chemical industry are not performing well.

By the end of November, the Asian PX plant operating rate remained at around 73%, the domestic PX plant operating rate was around 72%, the PTA operating rate was rising, and the demand for PX increased. In the 11-12 months, tens of thousands of tons of European and American PX cargo arrived in Hong Kong, and the processing price difference of PX picked up slightly, and the price of PX continued to oscillate.

In November, upstream crude oil prices rebounded and the cost of raw materials increased, and downstream polyester production and sales rebounded. PTA prices showed a trend of high volatility.

In December, the upstream crude oil tends to shock, the Fed's interest rate increase is expected to increase, and the current arbitrage price is suppressed. It is expected that the PTA price will show a downward trend. The PTA1705 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4850-5350.

1-10 months, the whole country

Investment (excluding farmers) was 484429 yuan, an increase of 8.3% over the nominal period, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points faster than that in 1-9 months.

From the aspect of the chain ratio, fixed asset investment (excluding households) increased by 0.58% in October.

The central bank data show that in October, the amount of RMB loans increased by 651 billion 300 million yuan from financial institutions was 568 billion 700 million yuan less than that of the previous month, which is lower than expected. Among them, the new loans of non financial enterprises in October were 168 billion 400 million yuan, a decrease of 453 billion 300 million yuan, and the medium and long-term loans of non-financial enterprises increased by 72 billion 800 million yuan, and the ring ratio decreased by 373 billion 800 million yuan.

In October, the scale of social financing was 896 billion 300 million yuan, and the new decrease in social financial data was mainly affected by the new drop in loans on the table.

In October, RMB loans increased by less than 661 billion 800 million yuan, while the other sub items were less than 125 billion 300 million yuan for off balance sheet loans, 50 billion 400 million yuan for bond financing and 24 billion 300 million yuan for stock financing.

In October, M2 grew by 11.6% year-on-year, while M1 grew by 23.9%. The scissors difference between M1 and M2 narrowed for third consecutive months, all in line with expectations.

Although the scissors gap between M1 and M2 continues to narrow, the growth rate of M1 is still at a higher level. The growth rate of demand deposits in enterprises still reflects the fact that the demand for investment in enterprises is not strong.

Economic data in October were mixed.

Cumulative growth rate picked up, real estate investment growth and industrial value added were flat, but social retail growth and manufacturing investment slowed down in the same month. Real estate regulation brought downward pressure on the economy. The devaluation of the RMB, the reduction of financial leverage and the Fed's interest rate increase made liquidity tighter, and the central bank's monetary policy remained tight and loose.

It is expected that the central economic work conference will continue to maintain the keynote of loose fiscal and monetary policy, and the reform of PPP supply side to reform state-owned enterprises and other benefits that will help maintain growth will be further promoted.

PX contract goods, South Korea SK12 month PX advocacy price implementation of $870 / ton CFR, compared with November ACP price increase of $65.

ExxonMobil PX in December initiated a price of $870 / ton CFR, up 75 US dollars compared to November ACP price.

Sinopec Chemical Sales East China branch November PX contract cargo settlement price of 6570 yuan / ton (cash 6535 yuan / ton), compared with October settlement price rose 140 yuan / ton.

On the device side, Jinling Petrochemical 700 thousand ton PX plant stopped maintenance in August 20th, and manufacturers resumed at the beginning of November.

The 500 thousand tonne PX installation of JX, Japan's deer island, was restarted in mid November. The device was closed by the Japanese earthquake in October 20th.

India integrity 2 million 250 thousand tons PX new device, has started 75-100 tons of PX capacity, production products will be used in Dahe and Malaysia PTA factory.

The aromatics 1 million T PX plant in Ulsan stopped in mid November, and the manufacturer stopped for 2 weeks and restarted at the end of November.

In November, international crude oil prices showed a trend of shock recovery. WTI crude oil price fluctuated at 42 US dollars / barrel to 49 US dollars / barrel interval. Brent crude oil price was in the range of 44 US dollars / barrel to 50 US dollars / barrel interval. The difference between US crude oil and Brent crude oil was in the range of 1-3 US dollars; naphtha prices showed a drop in volatility, from 451 US dollars / ton to 423 US dollars / ton CFR Japan; the MX price in Asia dropped slightly from 660 US dollars / ton to 624 US dollars / ton FOB Korea.

The price range of PX in Asia was reported to be $767 / tonne to $790 / ton FOB Korea.

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